Are The Chicken Little's Scaring Wall Street Investors Or Is There More Room For This Bull To Run

Today’s Henny Penny’s continue to cry “the sky is falling, the sky is falling” or more rightly the Euro’s falling, The Shanghai Index is Falling, “let’s go tell the king” or in our case Janet Yellen.  So, should we perk up our ears and bolt our doors every time these modern day Chicken Little’s find a podium, soapbox or blog to bloviate from? Here’s an alternative thought let’s look to our economic indicators we follow at GSA to see if there really is any indication of an imminent economic contraction portending a recession. 

The discussion ongoing among analysts, economists and traders on Wall Street surrounds interest rate policy.  I must admit in the past I’ve fallen victim to group think, specifically around when must the Federal Reserve hike and begin to normalize rates.  This should introduce to the discussion why the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates.  Put very simply, interest rates are a reflection of money supply.  Better known as M1, M2 and M3.  The Federal Reserve eases or lowers rates by pushing more money into the system, lowering rates making it cheaper for consumers and corporations to borrow, expand and possibly stimulate employment.   The Federal Reserve will raise rates or extract funding from the system when the economy seems to be running hot or above trend and inflationary pressures appear to be coming to a boil.  This is the ultimate simplistic explanation of what drives Federal Reserve Monetary policy.  It does not enter into the discussion the exponential effects it can have on currencies strengthening or devaluations.  It does not take into account the Federal Reserve being the lender of last resort and periodically needing to break out “the bazooka” (a Treasury Secretary Paulson term) to stave off catastrophe when our fearless elected officials are incapable of legislating fiscal policy.  The bad news, we’ve been stuck in the latter for the last seven years.  Thank you President Obama, Congresspersons Boehner and Pelosi along with Senators Reid and McConnell and basically any incumbent that’s had their snout in the trough feasting on the public during this time frame.  Job undone.   

The reason this discussion arises now is the “experts” are all fretting about when the Fed will begin hiking rates and the ensuing demise of the US economy taking the markets with them.  The conventional discussions conclude the Fed must hike immediately so they have some flexibility to ease should the economy lose its footing and slip back closer to recession at some future point.   This is the growing thought majeure on the street.  My experience is succumbing to group think and pressure tends to lead to bad outcomes.  At GSA, contrary to the street view, we do not anticipate any aggressive shift in Federal Reserve policy for the remaining quarters of 2015.  Here’s why.  1. The US economy is in a good, not great growth trajectory.  2. The EU is in early recovery mode whose economy is anticipated to expand at a 1 ¾%-1.9% rate.  3. China’s economy is in transition from one being export driven to one more reliant on domestic consumption with estimates of growth at 6 ¾%-7%.  4. Japan is clawing its way back from near twenty years of stagnation and may finally have found it’s footing while also registering a good not great growth rate of 1 ½%-2%.   At a time of obviously modest but improving growth, cheap labor along with an explosion of cheap energy supplies, in GSA’s opinion, one needs to question conventional wisdom on the necessity to hike rates both soon or aggressively.   Before we get too deep though, let’s check those stats for the real story:

Jobs: The Non-Farm payroll figures released last Thursday tallied +223,000 new jobs in June with the unemployment rate falling to 5.3%.  There were negative revisions to the prior two months shaving off 62,000.  Also released Thursday was the real time labor indicator the weekly unemployment claims which came in at 281,000 an increase of 10,000 from the prior week but still solidly below 300,000.  The four week moving average was also camped comfortably below 300,000 at 274,750.  These levels seem to coordinate well to continued monthly job gains of 200,000+ and +2,400,000 annually. 

Leading Economic Indicators(LEI). LEI jumped +.7% last month.  This was the second monthly +.7% gain in a row.  The strength  was broad based with Building Permits a standout for future indications of growth. 

Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index (PMMI). PMI for June expanded to +53.5% for the seventy third consecutive month.  This was an increase of +.7% over May’s +52.8%.  Strength was reflected in the New Orders Index, The Production Index and Inventories.  Front and center the Employment Index came in at +55.5% up +3.8% from the prior reading of +51.7%.  Solid reading.

Purchasing Managers Services Index (PMSI). PMSI registered in at +56% an increase of +.3%.  We saw firming in the Business Activity Index at 61.5% a full 2% rise and the New Orders Index at +58.3% up +.4%.  On the flip side the Employment Index slipped but stayed in expansion mode at +52.7% well above the 50% line. 

Housing.   Another bright spot on a slightly overcast market.  New Homes sales were up +20% to the best levels since 2008.   Pending Home Sales ticked up +.9% the best levels since 2006.  Lastly Existing Homes sales jumped as well +9.2% year over year.  Solid all around.

Gross Domestic Product(GDP).  We received the final first quarter GDP reading and while still negative was generally well received.  First quarter GDP was revised up to -.2% from the prior -.7% reading.  The first quarter was negatively impacted by another severe arctic blast coupled with a union sponsored shut in of the West Coast docs choking off any imports as well as exports.   Those clouds appear to have dissipated as the just closed second quarter appears to be tracking +2 ¾%-+3 1/4%.   Another nice bounce back but not great in the bigger picture. 

Where We Are Going:

Frankie Valli penned today's mood perfectly, “Greece is the time is the place is the motion and Greece is the way we are feeling”.  The markets behavior flip flops on the great unknown.  Namely, what happens if Greece throws in the towel  or is kicked out of the Euro-zone and Euro Currency.  The dotted line, I’m sure originated from Greece sources point to a Lehman-like catastrophe.  Hardly.  Lehman’s cataclysmic effects ruptured our financial system due to exposure to counter-party risk related to Lehman’s equity, bonds, options, repo lines, swap lines, credit default swaps etc.  The largest institutions with exposure to Greece aside from Germany ($95 billion) are the European Central Bank, Sovereign Central Banks, and the International Monetary Fund (who’s largest contributor happens to be the US).  So, while those socialist leaning talking heads congratulate the Greeks on being “bold” and “courageous”, know it is the US taxpayer paying for the Greek reckless overspending and social policies.  Interestingly, this comes at a time the US is finally acknowledging our own inability to afford our Social Security Insurance and Medicare programs.  Courageous is certainly not the work I’d have chosen.   

The global economy remains in an uneven recovery or stabilization mode.  The US, India, Japan and the EU are in recovery mode searching for firmer footing most likely to be found in thus far elusive fiscal policy.   While China, Russia and Brazil are finding that talking about growth policies and strategies are as useful as a bottle of Beam, a rock glass and one ice cube in Hades.   It’s just not enough.  In this environment of stagnant and below trend growth an argument to raise rates in 2015 is just a harder one to make.  There is little doubt the global rally in equities, real estate and fixed income is built upon the unprecedented stimuli or liquidity provided by global Central Banks.  The immediate risks lie with pulling away the punch bowl too early and choking off the economic and asset recovery.   Doing so may cause a backslide into a recession and a plunge in asset prices mirroring Japan’s 20 year slog.  Clearly when it comes to any adjustments to monetary policy, for now anyway, less is more and Chairwoman Yellen seems to agree.  So, the next time you hear those talking heads prognosticating about the end of this bull run, think like those Cows posted on the highway billboards and “Eat Mor Chiken”. 

We are cautiously optimistic as we enter earnings season.  Should earnings and guidance not meet our lowered expectations we’ll look to move to a more defensive posture and raise our cash allocations.

Thank you again for your patience and confidence in these very challenging times. 

Yours in pursuit of the KWAN.

Wall Street Says Nyet To The Ouzo Just Yet But The Risks Too High To Just Sit This Market Out

Is it time to get ready for my great big fat Greek default?  The window to closing a compromise deal between Greece and the EU is closing fast.  The Syriza party has successfully boxed themselves into a corner.  The party took control with the promise of austerity abolition.  I mean who wouldn’t like having their debts forgiven?  Can you imagine opening up your Amex or Visa bill and seeing your amount due $0.00 when you know you’ve been feasting on caviar, Kobe steaks and lobster having just returned from the trip you took on a chartered jet?  Heck I’d vote for that too.  Unfortunately you and I can ask Visa and Amex for a redo all we want and we’ll get the same response Greece is getting from the EU.  Nyet!

China may be shaping up to be our next NASDAQ laden tech bubble about to burst.  Nearly seventy percent of mainland stocks are trading at near fifty times earnings, and that’s if we can rely on their unaudited financials.  Margin borrowing is exploding up to $258 billion vs roughly $52 billion a bit over a year ago.  All at a time China is orchestrating a soft landing for its economy with growth struggling to find its footing and achieve a 7% rate of growth.  At least it sounds a little bubble-icious to me.  Now to add a bit of balance and be fair there is some good news going on.  Even at China’s slower rate of growth it would create an economy the size of Spain every two years.  It would create an economy the size of Italy every three years.  Still pretty impressive.   Since we’re talking about growth let’s see where the US, still the Big Kahuna currently stands. 

Gross Domestic Product-GDP.  US GDP for the first quarter of 2015 came in with an anemic +.2% rate of expansion.   Most are willing to look through this quarter as being severely impacted by weather and importantly the West Coast ports being shut down by the dock workers union.  The effects of this shut down also was reflected in the just recently released trade deficit which ballooned 43% from the prior reading to $51.37 billion. These events combined effects make it very difficult to get a reading of where we really stand.  So, we at GSA do not write this off until we see evidence that the economy will be able to rebound from this terrible reading. 

Jobs.  The Monthly jobs figure is scheduled to be released this upcoming Friday morning and the analysts range is for +200,000-+245,000.  The real time employment indicator, the weekly unemployment claims figures support a rebound in the jobs figure from March’s dismal reading of +126,000. We believe the weekly claims figures suggest a strong rebound and an upward revision to March’s release.  We’ll be watching closely. 

Leading Economic Indicators-LEI.  LEI for March ticked up +.2%.  LEI has reached some pretty lofty levels of late.  The rate of expansion reflected in the most recent releases point to a more moderate expansion going forward. 

Factory Orders.  US Factory Orders rang in at +2.1% after seven monthly declines.  The figure was helped along by a  13 ½% jump in transportation equipment with tend to be volatile month to month.  Order for durable goods(items with a greater than three year lifespan, think washing machines, refrigerators, ovens) also rose +4.4%.   All in all a solid number.

Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index-ISMM.  ISMM for April came in a +51.5% which was unchanged from March.  We saw growth in New Orders, Production and Exports which should bode well for further domestic expansion.  The Employment and Order backlog indexes both came in a bit.  Lastly, on the positive side of the ledger Inventories were drawn down leaving plenty of room for future restocking as sale pick up.

Institute for Supply Management Services-ISMS.  ISMS registered in at +57.8% up +1.2% from March.  Here again the positive for future growth  were front and center.  The New Orders Index popped +1.4% to +59.2.  Production also showed a strong rebound up +4.1% to +61.6% from +57.5%.  Finally the Employment Index rested comfortably above the 50 neutral figure coming out at +56.7% up just a tick from the prior reading. 

Housing.  New homes sales rose +6.1% in March the best level in over four years.  Housing is benefiting from ultra-low interest rates along with a firming jobs market.  Another positive in the housing sector, housing starts in March rose a full 2% to an annualized rate of  926,000 new homes.  Building permit applications for new homes dropped to a 1.04 million annual run rate lead by a steep decline in permitting for multi-family units.  Single family permits rose +2.1%.  So, all in all pretty good not great which is about in line with our current assessment with the economy overall. 

Where we are going:

There is an old saying in the markets.  Technicals chart the course, fundamentals drive.  Technicals in the market are pointing to a market that is coiling.  On the charts we see higher lows and a triple top which gives the basis for a pie formation (more of a slice of pie).  AS of now the market is churning.  We believe there is a breakout coming.   The catalyst may be right around the corner with Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll figures or Chicago(insert Puerto Rico if you like) defaulting on its massive debt. It could be the decision by Greece’s ruling Syriza party to do what’s best for the country and strike a bailout deal and forget about protecting their cushy seats.  For now we’re not overly optimistic on the Greek situation so we’ll hold off ordering the snails and Ouzo. 

In closing we believe there is a big move coming.  We believe in this modest growth environment with incredibly stimulative monetary policy provided by nearly all major global central banks the biggest risks to the market is being on the sidelines.   Should Greece fail to come to their senses, or perhaps Russia resume its push to expand its buffer zone with the west we may alter our outlook and stance.  For now we maintain our aggressive posture to the markets but will be in touch immediately should we need to adjust to the changing political and economic environment.

Thank you again for your patience and confidence in these very challenging times.

Yours in pursuit of the KWAN. 

PT Barnum Was Made For This Market Animal Spirits And All

PT Barnum once said, “energy and patience in business are two indispensable elements of success”.  That couldn’t be more true with investing in today’s markets.  The volatility and prices of the Dow specifically have seen near swings of 200pts on eight trading days out of the last two weeks of the just closed quarter.  These swings have shaken the faith of some investors while other market timers continue their attempts to pick tops and bottoms getting chopped up in the process.  The markets and economy both appear to be in a digestion phase.   Meaning we’re feeling the effects of the 45%+ drop in oil pricing  while dealing with the accompanying slowdown in capital outlays and hiring in those related industries.  At the same time we’ve also had to absorb the shocks from the polar blast that blanketed the east coast along with the West Coast port shutdown.  Expectations for revenue, earnings and first quarter growth are all coming down at the same time.  Considering all these headwinds a nice market correction seems inevitable, yet here we are a few percentage points from all-time highs.  Let’s take a closer look at the numbers. 

Jobs- Well this one left a mark.  Friday’s jobs figure was highly disappointing to say the least.  The headline figure +126,000 new jobs was roughly 100,000 shy of expectations.  This figure clearly reflects the residual effects of below normal temperatures and heavy snow accumulation.  When viewing these monthly figures it’s always best to look at the three month moving average at a minimum, which currently stands at +197,000.  We’ll wait for the April figure to be released in May to conclude we’re recession bound just yet. 

Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index(PMMI)-PMMI came in at +51.5% which reflects economic expansion for the twenty seventh consecutive month.   The New Orders Index, Production Index and Employment Index all showed a softening from the prior month while all remaining in positive growth territory. 

Purchasing Managers Services Index(PMSI)-PMSI registered in at +53.5% up a bit from February’s release of +52.7%.  This was the sixty second consecutive month of expansion.  The Business Activity Index, New Orders Index and Employment Index all were solidly in growth mode.  The commentary from respondents were overwhelmingly bullish or pro-growth.

Leading Economic Indicators(LEI)-LEI increased +.2%.  Conference board economist Ozyildirim noted, “ widespread gains among LEI continue to point to short term growth”.  He further commented that weakness in the Industrial sector and business investment were restraining economic growth overall. 

Producer Price Index & Consumer Price Index and (CPI,PPI)- PPI fell -.5% in February and was down -.6% for the trailing twelve months.  In February, no surprise nearly 30% of the decline can be traced to margins for fuels and lubricants which were off 13.4%.  Energy wasn’t the only culprit as we see weakness across minerals, vegetables and chicken.  CPI however ticked up to +.2% with the core (ex-food and energy) mirroring the top line figure of +.2%.  Over the prior twelve months the index remains unchanged overall.  Our takeaway here is inflation has not been a problem, will not be a problem for some time giving the Fed ample flexibility on future interest rate hikes.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-First quarter GDP report will be released later this month.  Nearly all analyst projections have been revised lower.   The new range looks to be from -.5%-+2% down from original calls for an average of +2 ½%.  This is a tough call. Clearly across the board the West Coast port shut down and the arctic blast had a devastating effect on consumer and product mobility, behavior and availability.  We’ll find out just how severe.  Last year’s freeze was responsible for a -2.2% contraction.  We don’t anticipate a hit of this magnitude as the economy and consumer are both on much firmer footing.

Where we’re going:

Coming into the year there were three huge Black Condors gliding above in threatening formation.  1.Iran 2.Ukraine 3.Greece.  The first two birds have been grounded or on trajectory to do so for now. The third resemble more of a pigeon than condor.  Should Greece exit the Euro, well, so what.  The benefits to being a member of the Euro-zone are clear.  An overleveraged, over-entitlement dependent Greece with a political policy not of diplomacy and negotiation but of nose snubbing and name calling in its place being asked to exit the Euro would not be as destabilizing as originally hypothesized.  There does not appear to be other Euro members lining up to take that same path which was once feared.  Should Greece’s virtual EU membership card get revoked, personally I’d feel worse having Costco revoke mine.  In the end Greece politico’s may or may not come to their senses.   Greece maintaining its EU membership would be a positive, but in the end would not be a devastating blow.

Speaking of the Euro-zone, we are beginning to see those ‘green shoots’ of spring growth.  After taking measures to firm up finances, liberalize work force rules (for some) and re-liquify the financial system (in progress)EU growth is now anticipated to move up +1.7% in 2015 and +2.1% in 2016.  Another bright spot for the global economy as China executes it’s long landing policies and growth eases closer to +7% annualized growth in 2015 we are seeing an acceleration in India’s economy which could pick up any residual slack in global demand.   India’s growth is targeted to expand (IMF and S&P estimates)+6 ¾%-+7.9% for 2015 and +6.52%-+8.2% in 2016.  Impressive. 

Domestically we are feeling the front end effects of cheap oil  That being slowed expansion and investment in new projects and manpower.  Visa has done some good work here suggesting a six month lag for the consumer wealth effect to flow through from sharp drops in energy translating to stronger retail sales and consumer behavior in general.   We should begin seeing a trickle of that new found consumer wealth in this current month and gaining steam as we get deeper into the year.   We appear to be stuck in a good not great economic growth scenario.  The low inflation environment we currently inhabit bodes well for the Janet Yellen lead Federal Reserve to put off any sharp hikes in interest rates to the latter half of this year and/or into 2016 which should maintain the favorable backdrop for equities.

We are cautiously optimistic as we enter earnings season.  Should earnings and guidance not meet our lowered expectations we’ll look to move to a more defensive posture and raise our cash allocations.  For now we remain patient as for those who rush in too quickly well, PT Barnum had another saying, something about “One being born every day”. 

Thank you again for your patience and confidence in these very challenging times. 

Yours in pursuit of the KWAN.

Quit All The Barking. No Bear Market Coming. Just Follow Bear

While growing up back east in the Big Apple our family always had at least one quad-ped with a tail, better known as a dog.  The one that was my favorite and best friend was a Chow and German Shepherd mix.  He was brown and white and BIG whom we named Bear.   He was extremely protective and would spring to attack mode when anyone even looked cross.   Thing is, it wasn’t until I was much older that I realized he’d spring to attack mode with anyone, anytime friend or foe, just never against us.  I realized Bear was wise beyond even his dog years and adhered to the old saying, “you don’t bite the hand that feeds you”.   Some, and for me far too many, investors continue to gripe  and get downright ornery  about the current and very generous Federal Reserve monetary policy.  A policy  which arguably rescued the global economy, our capital markets and for many a lifetime of savings.  So, no need for tail wagging or face licking just looking for an end to the teeth gnashing. 

The US economy continues an improving trajectory at a speed of good not great.  We are a near $17 trillion economy expanding at a 2 ½% to 3 ¼% annual growth pace.  The US recovery is far more broad based and on firmer footing than our global partners.  So, that being said let’s just get right to it. 

Where we are.

Institute For Supply Management Manufacturing-ISM Manufacturing.  ISM Manufacturing for February came in at +52.9% down -.6% from January’s +53.5%.  There was a general easing off the accelerator across the board, but 67% of the reporting manufacturers reported growth, 17% reporting unchanged and 16% reporting contraction.   Respondents commented as follows:  “West Coast ports is an issue for exporting” Food and Beverage.  “The major concern for us is the ongoing situation with the West Coast ports” Transportation Equipment.  “The dock delay on the West Coast is seriously impacting the supply chain” Computer and Electronic Products.  “Business in general is staying its course. Concerns abound over strike possibilities by West Coast Longshoreman” Machinery.  You can see a clear trend here.  The takeaways here.  The +52.9% while lower is still solidly above the +50% mark which denotes growth.  As well the West Coast Longshoremen strike has by now been resolved and the backlogs are now being dealt with and cleared. 

Leading Economic Indicators-LEI.  LEI increased +.2% in January on top of the +.4% gain recorded in December.  The trailing six month average comes in at a reasonably healthy +2.3% showing with broad based gains and participation.   The most recent reading continues to suggest a slow growth environment with a lack of strong residential construction continuing to act as a drag on growth.

Industrial Production-IP.  IP rose +.2% in January.  While the US factories continue to chug along at a moderate level exports seem to have hit stall speed, potentially impacted by, yet again the downshift to snail speed at the West Coast ports.   Factory Capacity Utilization stood steady at +79.4%. 

New Homes Sales-NHS.  NHS dropped-.2% in January.   The supply or inventory of unsold homes stood steady at 5.4 months.    Existing homes sales also took a hit down 5%.  Both figures appear to have been impacted by the severe cold snap experienced across the US and the sharp rise in pricing.   Housing Permits edged down also to a 1.05 million annual run rate.  Should this slow growth mode take root it would be problematic to the US recovery as construction plays a sizable role in the domestic economy.  We do not anticipate this scenario as the generally favorable conditions are still present.  These include strong and growing employment, ultra-low interest rates along with a deleveraged consumer.  

Jobs- The real time gauge of the employment picture, weekly unemployment claims have entered into a seasonally choppy period allowing for seasonal workers being released now that the holidays have come and gone.   We’ve witnessed swings of +/- 30,000 over the course of the last month pushing the gauge above and below the 300,000 threshold leaving us  currently at 294,000.  Next the granddaddy of jobs figures the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls .  Non-Farm Payrolls rose 257,000 in January with private average hourly earnings increasing +.12.   Good news along with the recent announcements from major retailers hiking hourly rates nationally.   February’s Payroll figure will be released this upcoming Friday with the expectations for another gain in jobs right around +230,000. 

Where we are going.

The US economy is resilient in it recovery not withstanding we continually shoot ourselves in the foot.  Starting with a dysfunctional Capitol that for the past six years have shown us leadership at its worst.  Starting with a President that continues to circumvent both houses and back to a Congressional lack of leadership that almost resulted in initiating a bear market raid in response to a government shutdown.  Then most recently the Longshoremen’s union(which many of my uncles and both my grandfathers were members of) nearly shutting down the West Coast Ports at the most important time of the year, holiday season.  Despite all of these attempts to inflict pain on both business and consumers in order to trigger a negative backlash the US economy keeps chugging along. 

This contrasts with our global partners.  The Euro-zone is showing early signs of recovery.  However, due to a European Central Bank that had been shackled by the Euros structure, large budget deficits, Germany’s adherence to austerity as tonic for anything that ails EU members and a renewed fear of a Greexit, it’s no wonder Euro-zone GDP would be lucky to generate the forecast +1.3% for 2015 and +1.9% expansion in 2016.   

Now we shift to China.  China remains an interesting story.  China is attempting to shift the economy to one less reliant on exports.  They were/are a low cost provider of labor. Their goal is to diversify away from cheap labor and real estate to include the higher margin, higher paying services and technology sectors while spurring domestic consumption.   China’s approach to markets appears to shackle if not completely lock out US companies only to encourage domestics to build out mirrors of US success stories.  Think Google vs Baidu.  Look again at Amazon and EBay vs Alibaba and Tencent.   Chinese companies don’t necessarily innovate, they do however replicate and quite successfully.   We could continue to list companies in Banking and Insurance and many more.  We’ll see how well they fare when China finally opens the doors for US competitors.  China’s economy is anticipated to expand at a 7% annual rate though growth has been choppy. In response the Chinese Central bank recently eased monetary policy to help juice  the slowing domestic growth rate which had been feared to have dipped below that pace.  

Shifting our gaze just a bit we see Japan continuing its own Quantitative Easing program.   Prime Minister Abe has staked his legacy on finally jump starting the Japanese economy and stabilizing inflation.  We are seeing early signs of success.  India has also joined the program of the race to debase one’s currency.  The Central Bank of India recently cut rates to spur growth.  This coupled with recent steps taken by new Prime Minister Narenda Modi to encourage business investment and spur infrastructure spending are encouraging measures.  Much like Europe, India and Japan recognize the structural issues restraining growth each country face cannot be resolved by rate cuts alone.  Finally after a near lost decade all are beginning the arduous task of taking on structural reform and the powerful unions.  In order to unlock each countries growth potential, workforce liberalization must occur while attempting to simultaneously root out at least some corruption.  These steps being taken currently will in retrospect prove to be baby steps and take a few more years to implement but they are finally heading in the right direction. 

When we take our view from ten thousand feet above we see even better times ahead.  The Euro-zone should continue its early stage recovery aided by the European Central Bank’s Quantitative Easing program of $60 billion monthly asset purchases.  This should reinforce modest 1%+ 2015 growth accelerating albeit from a low base closer to 2% into 2016.   We look for Japan’s GDP to expand at a .6% annual growth rate for 2015 bumping up to +.8% in 2016.  India and China are targeting an impressive annual GDP growth rates of 7% +or – ¼%.  These tailwinds  for the US economy  should be aided in no small part by the generationally low current interest rate environment provided by Fed Chair Yellen.  So, when the Federal Reserve finally begins to normalize interest rates later this year or early next year, before investors  begin growling and gnashing their teeth they’d be much wiser and take a note from my old friend and “be the bear”. 

For now we maintain our aggressive exposure to the markets while monitoring the data for any signals to become more defensive. 

Thank you again for your patience and confidence in these very challenging times. 

Yours in pursuit of the KWAN.

For Wall Street And The Markets Expect Much Of The Same

As the glow fades from holiday festivities and New Year’s celebrations the view forward in 2015 is now becoming clear, more of the same.  Sounds boring but when you consider what the returns from the prior four years were, I’ll take, “more of the same” any day, month and year. 

Where we are and our outlook.

GDP.  The US economy likely finished out the calendar year 2014 with a 2 5/8%-2 ¾% annual growth rate if fourth quarter growth comes in the expected 3%-3 ½% range rate of expansion.  After a surprise weather related contraction in the first quarter the economy bounced back strongly reflecting increasing underlying strength which topped out at 5% in the third quarter.  We anticipate the trend to continue into 2015 with growth for the year finally topping 3% annualized growth driven by strong consumer demand and an uptick in capital expenditures.

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)-LEI increased to +.6% in November pointing to a continuation of the “much of the same”.   This should portend a continuation of an improving growth trend.  Novembers release followed Octobers +6% and +.8% in September.  Economist Ken Goldstein of the Conference Board noted the LEI signals moderate growth that is somewhat restrained by income growth.  Real income growth is up +.8% year over year.   

Industrial Production (IP)-IP jumped +1.3% in November year over year.  IP has grown +5.2%, the best showing since 2011.  The gains were led by automobile manufacturing which popped +5.1%.  Ex-auto’s IP still had a solid showing of +.9%.  Capacity Utilization tightened up with the increased manufacturing demand to 80.1% or +.8% the best since 2010.   The excess factory capacity present throughout this current recovery has been sopped up so any continued strength may finally spark the inflation rate closer to the Federal Reserve’s target range. 

Inflation- Still no problems on this front.  The Federal Reserve will just have to wait as the plunge in commodity prices in general and specifically oil and energy related products continue to put downward pressure on all inflation indices.   Great news for consumers and commercial users of these feedstock’s. 

Employment.  Job creation once again turned in a solid showing.  In 2014 Non-Farm payrolls averaged better than 240,000 on a monthly basis, ex-Decembers figures (due out this coming Friday).  The prior three month average for the September to November period clocked in an even better rate of 270,000 adds with November scoring  the strongest gains of 321,000. We look for Friday’s Non-Farm figure to come in right around trend growth of 240,000.00.  At the same time weekly unemployment claims have been anchored under 300,000 for some time signaling more workers finding new jobs.  Both very positive signals.  We’d still like to see the participation rate tick up along with a decline in the population now receiving disability checks. This program’s rolls ticked up strongly as many unemployed individuals applied for disability benefits once ultra-long term unemployment benefits expired.

Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISMM)-ISMM closed out the year in December with a reading of +55.5% down -3.2% from November but solidly above the 50 breakeven line.  That overall trend was seen throughout the report with New Orders and Production solidly over 50 but down over 5% from the November figures.  The two brightest spots were the Employment Index rising +1.9% to +56.8% while the Price Index dropped 6% to 38 ½% indicating lower raw materials pricing.  Eleven of the eighteen reporting industries  reported growth.   We heard from the Food and Beverage sectors that “sales are much improved year over year”.   From transportation, “trucks and RV business very strong”.   While Fabricated Metals and Textiles noted “the ongoing drag from the West coast  port planned union slowdowns”. 

Monetary Policy- The Federal Reserve has telegraphed their plans to investors of their wanting to begin to normalize rates.  Current expectations are for the first ¼% point rate hike to occur mid to late second quarter.  This normalization plan is fluid, flexible and data dependent with an eye to both domestic and global growth data points.   Federal Reserve Chair Yellen’s plan may be pushed back even further should the Euro-zone and Japan slip back into recession as the effects may wash up on US shores. 

White Condors

1.      The Grid. The US electricity grid is hit by terrorists.  The US grid stretches over 160,000 miles and is easily accessible and lightly if not at all guarded.  Earlier on in 2014, April to be exact a coordinated group of attackers  cut telephone cables and snipers took out 17 large transformers that funneled power to Silicon Valley.  The country has 2000 of these type transformers and a limited supply of manufacturers that could replace them in a timely fashion should there be a large scale attack.  Strategically coordinated attacks on our grid could leave vast swaths of the US dark and without power for weeks and would be catastrophic. 

2.     Russia.  In a complete rebuke to western sanctions Russia mounts a full scale invasion of Ukraine in the first of an all-out effort to recreate a smaller more compact USSR while expanding its buffer zone to the West.   Russia over the last few years has taken a page from the Obama playbook and pivoted east towards China.   As the West tightens the economic noose on Russia with sanctions and oil prices for which the Russian economy relies on for over 50% of total revenues continue in a free fall Russia has turned to China.  They have cultivated a wary friendship with a very willing buyer of its natural gas and oil and diversified their customer base making them less reliant on Europe.  As Russia moves away from Europe and closer to China they may feel emboldened to do as they wish retaking what Putin believes is theirs from the beginning.

3.     Oil.  What is the correct price of oil? Energy “experts” rolled out the Peak Oil thesis for decades in order to justify exorbitant pricing.   Chevron’s CEO earlier this year stated “$100.00 per barrel of oil was the new $20.00”.  Another noted oil expert, Harold Hamm founder of Continental Resources was so positive of oils lofty pricing he sold off his hedges back in the October, November months when oil was still hovering around $80.00 a barrel confident oil pricing would rebound sharply.   Now with oil changing hands closer to $52.00 and the “experts” claims that US producers would turn off the spigots once we broke $75 clearly a miscalculation at a minimum why does this rate as a White Condor?  The last time speculators were chased from the markets was during the near financial collapse and ensuing recession.  The price of oil hit right around $36.00 a barrel.  We could be headed there or lower.  The Saudi’s claim they are profitable extracting oil at $10.00 Exxon says they can extract oil profitably at $14.00.   Ultimately oil pricing will be determined when demand catches up to supply.  On the supply side the US alone is expected produce an additional 1 million barrels this year.  We’ll also see new supplies come online from Mexico, Brazil, Australia and Canada.  As well, as the outside world lifts sanctions on Iran  we could see even more production from Iran and from the middle east.   These supplies could be soaked up easily. First the Euro-zone would need to resume a growth trajectory.  Second China’s economy could cease the planned downward trajectory it is currently on.  Third India could and should continue on its path of opening markets, engagement and encouraging foreign investment.  If oil plumbs the levels mentioned above the high yield market could take a major hit from Exploration and Production companies that overleveraged their balance sheets to acquire land and expand anticipating stable or higher energy pricing.  The defaults could spike rather significantly forcing liquidations and bankruptcies while spilling over into the equity markets as well.

Going Forward

Enough can’t be said about the stimulative effects on the consumer and economy from the falling energy prices.  If oil prices stabilized around current levels it is estimated to provide over $150 billion back in consumers’ pockets and that’s just talking gasoline.   Or in D.C speak $1.5 trillion since they seem to like extrapolating out 10 years.  Aside from the tax break effect consumers will feel, inflations flames driven by commodities should be extinguished giving the Federal Reserve a longer leash and allow slower implementation of their interest rate hike plans.  Further cheap energy feed stocks are attracting foreign manufacturing dollars to invest in and build new plants domestically. 

The US economy has clearly reached escape velocity from the negative gravitational pull of the bruising recession.   The US economy is anticipated to expand at a 3%-3 ¼% pace  of growth with a backdrop of low inflation and a still highly accommodative Federal Reserve along with Global Central banks.   With corporate balance sheets and consumers ledgers in excellent shape to support growth we look to future revenues, earnings, multiples and valuations for our projections. We also note the potential upside surprise should our fearless leadership in D.C finally decide to work together on tax reform.   We look for the S&P 500 companies to generate $133 in earnings this year.  Utilizing a still reasonable 16 ½% P/E we arrive at 2194 or +6 5/8% add in the dividend yield and we come to a +8.8% total return.   Due to the sharp drop in oil and commodities along with a potential rate hike, volatility should spike and remain at elevated levels making 2015 a challenging year.  But we believe and maintain that any correction can and should be bought.

For now we remain aggressively committed to the market closely monitoring data along with any signs to change course in which case we’ll be in contact immediately. 

Thank you again for your patience and confidence in this very challenging investing environment.

Yours in pursuit of the KWAN!

Job Growth Surges 321,000 For November Now It's Really Time To Prepare for the Newer New Normal

One of Pacific Investment Management Company’s (PIMCO) elite brain trust  Mohamad El-Erian coined the phrase, “the new normal” six years ago when characterizing the future returns for equity investors.  Basically after all his in-depth research, analysis, modeling and magic wand he stated equity investors would need to adjust to future returns of 5% or so.   Mr. El-Erian is undeniably a very intelligent fellow witch, up to this point in time  had a very solid record.  Mr. El-Erian fell victim to his conviction.   Meaning even as the markets raged forward he continued to dig in his heels stubbornly clinging to his “new normal” theory costing his investors and followers hundreds of billions of dollars and some years later his very own job.   The underlying theme here is the markets are always right so, as investors we need to be humble, flexible and when called for quick. 

The US economy is no longer a good house in a bad neighborhood.  We are the Bentley in a used car lot.   The US economy for the trailing two quarters is averaging better than a 4% expansion rate of growth with the current quarter estimated to be tracking at close to 3%. This would give us a three quarter average of better than 3 ½%.   Take that when comparing the US vs. the Eurozone’s blistering pace of +.2%, Japan at -1.6% contraction, the United Kingdom’s +.7% and Russia at +.7%.   The US economy, now after five years of repair from a bruising and painful recession, is now finally starting to fire on all gears.    So, where are we.  Let’s get to it.

Jobs- The Non-Farm Payroll figures were released this morning and they were stellar coming out at +321,000.  There was strength across the board.  Average hourly earnings registered a +.4%.  The average workweek pushed higher to 34.6 hours.  Importantly the jobs created were good paying solid jobs with Business and Services adding 81,000 to head count and Healthcare and Manufacturing added 28,000 and 29,000 respectively.  No two ways about it a very strong number.  We’ll wait for the January release to see if this was a one off number, if this November number is followed up with another very strong number we may need to rethink the timing of the first Fed rate hike.

Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing –The ISM Manufacturing figures released earlier this week came in a +58.7% which is solid but down slightly from the prior reading of +59.%.  Looking inside the headline figure we continued to strength across the board.  Aside from the positive Production and Employment components we saw an uptick in the New Orders an Exports indexes and a slowdown in inventory build outs which bodes well for future growth .

Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing-The ISM Non-Manufacturing figures came out at +59.3 which was 2.2% higher from the prior month.   There were some softness noted in the employment index but still registered growth along with a pickup in the Business Activity Index which leapt 4.4% to +64.4%.  Also, importantly the New Orders posted a 2.3% increase to 61.4%.   Respondents noted the following: Finance-“uptick in demand and spending”, Technology, “Business is good with new products”, Professional Scientific, “Business is strong with many accounts wishing to be implemented before year end”.   Also very positive was from mining,’ we are experiencing downward pricing pressure on natural gas as a result of lower pricing from OPEC.    There should be a smiley face inserted her but I’m prohibited from doing so. 

Leading Economic Indicators-LEI.  LEI released in late November showed a very strong jump of +.9% following September’s +.7%.   This continued strength suggests a strong holiday season spilling over and into the first quarter of 2015.  There was strength registered across the board. 

Industrial Production-IP.  IP ticked down a -.1% in October after having surged ahead +.8% in September.  There was some strength seen in manufacturing  up +.2% which was far outweighed by the decline in mining activity of      -.9%.     This overall indicator is still showing a 4% gain for the comparable year ago period.   The Capacity Utilization rate declined -.3% to 78.9% which leaves ample cushion to absorb any future inflationary pressure when they arise. 

Housing- Housing Starts for October registered a 1,009,000 annual run rate which was a bit softer than September release of 1,038,000 but is up +7.8% from the year ago period.   Importantly Housing Permits came in at 1,080,000 this is a +4.8% improvement from the prior months reading.  

Now to where we are going.

There is no getting around what is driving the US economy now.  Front and center Jobs and energy.   I’m not sure which is the cart and which is the horse and for me that’s another discussion.    The jobs picture is finally starting to see acceleration with the three month average now at +263,000.  We’ll hold off on our opinion regarding the latest Non-Farm figure until we get confirmation this wasn’t a onetime anomaly from the January release.   The argument that there were no “quality” jobs being created should now be quieted.   Clearly good quality high paying jobs in Manufacturing, Business and Healthcare are being created.  I always had a problem with the term “good quality jobs” to begin with.  When I was out of work, any job was a good job, up until the time I could find a better one.   Looking to the other input part of the economy the correction going on in the energy sector is a boom for everyone, ex- Texas, North Dakota and most notable OPEC, Russia and Venezuela.   But those players have partied on our dime for long enough. Foreign investment to take advantage of our cheap natural gas and natural gas liquids is booming.   Over the course of the last 10 years we’ve debunked the “Peak Oil” theory as a paper funded by and for the oil industry.    The Shale formations in the US have unleashed a tidal wave of cheap oil and gas that will forever change the pricing and security of America.  No longer will we need to engage hostile forces to protect “US Interests “abroad.  No longer will we be held hostage to rival religious fanatical factions to heat our home and fill our tanks.   The Shale Revolution has changed all of that while producing  tens of thousands of high paying US jobs.   The argument now is where will oil find a bottom.  I can remember back to the depths of the financial crisis when Institutional Investors and Hedge Fund managers were scrambling to raise cash for clients redemption requests.  They were selling any and everything which meant the futures and options position being closed out in the energy pits as well.  The bottom price of oil at that time when speculators were chased out of the market was  right around the $36.00 barrel level.   The Saudi’s say they can extract oil at $10 barrel.   Some estimate the Bakken and Permian have similar extraction rates for break even.   We’ll see.  But to show just how powerful this move down in gasoline can be for consumers.  US consumers spent close to $374 billion on fuel last year.  If we simply hold the 30% correction at the pumps we’ve already experienced for the next year we’ll have put $110 billion back in to consumers’ pockets and pocketbooks.  That doesn’t take into account the additional savings from heating ones homes.  Potentially hugely stimulative to the consumer and better than any government program.  So, let’s hope the government  doesn’t try and figure a way to get ahold of those monies before it gets to the consumer.    Back on point.  The point here is the US is doing much better and about to take flight. This without much assistance from the Euro zone which is close to reentering a recession, Russia about to enter a recession, Japan which is fighting stagflation to a standstill at best along with China and India enduring a soft landing of +7.5% and +5.4% respectively.   This drag the US is encountering from the global economy may actually work to our benefit as it prevents our economy from overheating forcing the Yellen Federal Reserve to hike interest rates thus choking off a continuation of the domestic expansion and market surge.   Instead with more American’s being put back into “good jobs” with improving wages coupled with the drop in energy prices this scenario could provide us with years of this Goldilocks environment providing above average returns for investors.  So, if this is Mohamad’s New, New Normal, I’m all aboard. 

For now we remain aggressively committed to the market closely monitoring data along with any signs to change course in which case we’ll be in contact immediately. 

Thank you again for your patience and confidence in this very challenging investing environment.

Yours in pursuit of the KWAN!